Pyroman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 edit: nvm, it's been proven wrong TL;DR $16 FOR A 50% CHANCE OF WINNING $70 (or losing $10) I want to prove my hypothesis Via trade-up, you can get Catastrophic Companions ($95, or $82 without scm taxes, in unque quality) There's only one assassin-grade (and no elite) item in the Tough Break Collection http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/A%20Well%20Wrapped%20Hat(currently $1.28) When trading up, the chances of getting an item from an specific collection are calculated depending on the number of inputs from that collection. i.e. if you put in 9 Tough Break items and 1 Gargoyle item, chances of getting a Gargoyle elite-grade item are 10%. However, there's no existing elite-grade Tough Break Collection items, and it's impossible to trade up for nothing. Therefore, I believe that when attempting to trade up with such a combination, your chances of getting a Gargoyle item are 100%, and thus, there's a 50% chance of getting Catastrophic Companions (and a 50% chance of getting Arthropod's Aspect [$5.81]) The three assassin-grade items from the Gargoyle Collection are relatively expensive http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Dead'er%20Alive($4.13) http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Grim%20Tweeter($4.13) http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Crusader's%20Getup($5.08) Buying 9 Well Wrapped Hats would cost ~ $12 at most, add up one of the Gargoyle items and you get 10 items at roughly $16 So if my point is correct, you can either get (after taxes) a Companions ($82) or Aspect ($5), which is either a $75 gain or a $11 loss. That means, even if you only get cats only once out of 8 attempts, you'd still be roughly breaking even (or end up with a minimal loss). Given chances are 1/2, it's unlikely you'll lose so many times consecutively. So, who's up for it? Alternatively, if you're as rich as Trump, you can try doing it with the stranges. http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20A%20Well%20Wrapped%20Hat($6-10, average ~8 if you buy the 9 cheapest) http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Dead%27er%20Alive($20) http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Grim%20Tweeter($20) http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Crusader%27s%20Getup($20) http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Arthropod%27s%20Aspect($27, ~$23 after taxes) - roughly $70 loss http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Catastrophic%20Companions Current cheapest strange cats are listed at $370, though highest sale was $170 about 2 months ago. http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56bfbc80dea9e9c0501222f3- strange cats have been offered as much as 150 keys pure, which on community market would be around $320 after taxes. That translates to a 50% chance of winning $220. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caboose Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 tl;DR Better gamble than sweestakes inb4 reddit post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knight Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This is a very interesting theory, I hope someone comes forward and tries it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puddingkip Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Sure I'm up. I've let you gamble with my keys before and it worked out brilliantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyroman Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Sure I'm up. I've let you gamble with my keys before and it worked out brilliantly obviously but if you do it yourself your luck might be better than mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prutser Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm pretty sure these no option to trade up well wrapped hats. edit: Theres not. Just checked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knight Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm pretty sure these no option to trade up well wrapped hats. edit: Theres not. Just checked Awh man, and here we thought we could get rich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Mem Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Yeah, it physically will not let you put the Well-Wrapped Hat into the trade-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caboose Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 FUCKING RIP AH GOD NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFFIRMATIVE Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Wouldn't by sheer chances make it so that you never lose money ? As in you can infinitely try to do it and always get profit out of it, because if you get 50% to win $70 or lose $10 then the chances of losing $10 7 times in a row is really slim, and you have to be really unlucky for this to happen. That would mean tons of people would've won the companions and its price would've gotten considerably lower by now, it was literally something too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyroman Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 well shit. rip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puddingkip Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 obviously but if you do it yourself your luck might be better than mine Nah mate we should get bucket to do it Oh it doesn't work. Should have know better than to expect you to come up with something brilliant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyroman Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Oh it doesn't work. Should have know better than to expect you to come up with something brilliant hahaha you little shit you know you really should lend me some more keys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puddingkip Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 hahaha you little shit you know you really should lend me some more keys Ehh sure. I'll have them back before Christmas I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Delicious Cashew Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Ehh sure. I'll have them back before Christmas I hope yeah, pyroman owes me 14 keys from last halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puddingkip Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 yeah, pyroman owes me 14 keys from last halloween oh. Well he obliged to the deal last time so I trust him with my 8 new keys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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