Require more proof for non-unusual item suggestions

[Kevin the Chicken God]

links broken, have fun copying

 

I wasn't really sure what to title this, so it might be a bit misleading

I'm also not huge on regular item suggestions, so bear with me as I stumble around here. I've been noticing suggestions like: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55dc8905ba8d887a5d8b460b, or http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55dc2b0cba8d88af5c8b45dc , or http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55e6165db98d8846248b4647 , or http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55dbd1f0ba8d88d95c8b45ac , as well as many others over the course of the past few weeks. All of these small, scrap changes in item prices which may or may not violate the 5% rule but still should not be considered valid. It's kinda crazy that a single sale at a scrap above or below justifies a completely new price, but there are also flaws that hurt the system itself and also flaws with the system itself. I'll address the latter one first, since I feel like it's the most significant. Proof gathering for some of these robo or haunted items is a pain in the ass because there are maybe 1 or 2 pages on outpost+classifieds, and among that maybe a handful could be considered valid. You collect the proof from the sellers, not the sales, and it's almost impossible to find people who sell for what they paid, so the only valid proof you get is someone trying to make a quick 1-2 scrap profit flipping off someone looking to sell fairly fast. The real trades that are happening to establish the range aren't happening from sellers on outpost because the people that buy the hats for the actual market price don't relist them, making their proof nearly impossible to find unless you know them. This makes it a lot easier to lower items than it is to raise them, because an item really has to be due for a raise if people are confident enough to sell a rec or so above bp price that they'll actually buy them off the market for the current listed price. Collectors are a different story, they're kinda minor and don't have much impact on this so I'll leave them out. In order to create a viable drop in an item, you should have large quantities of sellers who cannot successfully sell at under the listed bp price because buyers are not confident enough in flipping the item, see suggestions like http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55e50864dea9e9a8238b45b1 and http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55dc086bb98d8868218b4600 and http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55e61c73dea9e9070a8b456f , which is how normal item suggestions are supposed to look. I hope this leads to some sort of change, I've always been annoyed by the one-link suggestions that started popping up some time ago and felt the need to make this thread by the fact that this proof might actually be considered valid, if not by mods then by voters. I was having these thoughts very eloquently and clearly before I started typing, then I just fell apart so I probably didn't express my thoughts very well, will probably answer comments and hopefully do a better job of it than I did here.

 

tl;dr: low proof small drop suggestions are not representative of the market and should not be considered valid

[CourtneyWendysCommercials]

+1

 

it seems the people that suggest like this care more about their number of suggestions accepted than actually suggesting items more than one person in the community would care about

[Lib3l]

Agreed, I have to confess I have done a fair few 1 trade price changes in the past but mostly for rare items. In some cases it is very hard to find sales for items but with 1 scrap changes it hardly seems worth it. You've also highlighted happyedit's price suggestion which is amusing since they are often known for being of lower quality and just for the belt.

[polar]

I don't know how we're going to get more proof for some of these hats. A lot of the halloween hats sell more rarely than unusuals. If there's an unsold for a month at 2 refined and another unsold at 3 days at 1.88 refined, I think 1.88 is better than 2. The suggestion you have linked that have more proof are items that are more commonly sold.

 

Anyways, this is exactly why we leave rare, non-unusual item suggestions up for so long. In the hope that in the time the suggestion is up, we get more sales. Occasionally we do, but usually we don't.

[Kevin the Chicken God]

I don't know how we're going to get more proof for some of these hats. A lot of the halloween hats sell more rarely than unusuals. If there's an unsold for a month at 2 refined and another unsold at 3 days at 1.88 refined, I think 1.88 is better than 2. The suggestion you have linked that have more proof are items that are more commonly sold.

 

Anyways, this is exactly why we leave rare, non-unusual item suggestions up for so long. In the hope that in the time the suggestion is up, we get more sales. Occasionally we do, but usually we don't.

but what does accepting suggestions like the one you mentioned accomplish? It doesn't really reflect an actual market change, I think most people if they were actually interested in purchasing the item for keeps would pay 2 over 1.88 because they don't want to deal with the hassle. Especially considering that it sold for 1.88 in 2 days, just because it doesnt sell for bp price doesnt mean bp price is necessarily wrong, it might just mean that there aren't many people interested in buying the item for keeps

[Teeny Tiny Cat]

 just because it doesnt sell for bp price doesnt mean bp price is necessarily wrong, it might just mean that there aren't many people interested in buying the item for keeps

 

But logically speaking, there not being many people interested in buying is the exact reason it should (and does) drop in price. Supply and demand is the entire basis of the economy.

 

Low demand, low supply = stable price

Low demand, high supply = dropping price

High demand, low supply = rising price

High demand, high supply = stable price

 

Hence things like haunteds starting to raise again around halloween, and dropping through the year - the supply is about the same, but the demand for them goes up and down. People want them around halloween and don't really care the rest of the time.

 

Whether or not small changes matter is a different thing I guess. They're not that important perhaps, but they're not really doing any harm either?

[Kevin the Chicken God]

But logically speaking, there not being many people interested in buying is the exact reason it should (and does) drop in price. Supply and demand is the entire basis of the economy.

 

Low demand, low supply = stable price

Low demand, high supply = dropping price

High demand, low supply = rising price

High demand, high supply = stable price

 

Hence things like haunteds starting to raise again around halloween, and dropping through the year - the supply is about the same, but the demand for them goes up and down. People want them around halloween and don't really care the rest of the time.

 

Whether or not small changes matter is a different thing I guess. They're not that important perhaps, but they're not really doing any harm either?

yeah, but the 1.88 sold in 2 days, showing that the range didn't need fixing. As polar said, there weren't a lot of them on outpost, so they were low supply and low demand, just because 2 doesn't sell doesnt mean 1.88 is any better, it was probably just someone who was thinking about buying it and ended up grabbing the cheapest on the market. I can't imagine if you tried selling at 1.88 it would go any faster than 2 used to. It also creates an environment where posting a single link is considered "good proof" as well as other things I mentioned in my paragraph above.

[Teeny Tiny Cat]

yeah, but the 1.88 sold in 2 days, showing that the range didn't need fixing. As polar said, there weren't a lot of them on outpost, so they were low supply and low demand, just because 2 doesn't sell doesnt mean 1.88 is any better, it was probably just someone who was thinking about buying it and ended up grabbing the cheapest on the market. I can't imagine if you tried selling at 1.88 it would go any faster than 2 used to. It also creates an environment where posting a single link is considered "good proof" as well as other things I mentioned in my paragraph above.

 

You just said it sold in 2 days, and then immediately said that you can't imagine if you tried selling at 1.88 vs 2 it would go any faster. It literally did go faster, it sold where 2 did not? Not really relevant to the point I suppose, as it wasn't sold at the time it was suggested, but your two sentences are contradicting each other which makes it kinda difficult to follow what your point is.

 

I don't really disagree with you in principle - I don't think pricing it at 1.88 vs 2 makes any difference really, seems like a pointless change to me. If it can't sell at 2 and there's a seller for lower, then the lower price is technically more accurate, but when they're that close together I'm not sure if that really matters much.

[Kevin the Chicken God]

You just said it sold in 2 days, and then immediately said that you can't imagine if you tried selling at 1.88 vs 2 it would go any faster. It literally did go faster, it sold where 2 did not? Not really relevant to the point I suppose, as it wasn't sold at the time it was suggested, but your two sentences are contradicting each other which makes it kinda difficult to follow what your point is.

oh yeah, I did say that 

I meant that someone probably bought it because they thought they were getting it cheap and would probably have purchased one anyways if they were interested, but those people don't really come around often for this specific hat

[Jacobmeister]

I do agree, kind of. There are some items where the market is just too small and sometimes, very little proof is all there is (think some of the genuines or vintages) but I think the main offender when it comes to tiny drops are the craft hats.

 

I personally think for a craft hat to rise, there needs to be more than one sale at the suggested price (if it's 1.33 and there's a sale at 2, that could possibly be an outlier - there have been suggestions passed with only one sale at a higher amount even with a bunch of sellers lower.) When it comes to hats dropping, people tend to think they can get away with whatever, because "oh small market!!111!!1!!111! not more proof!!11!!11!111!" but if there isn't enough proof for a change, there should be no change.

 

Suggestions for items rising based on buyers are okay, though - multiple buyers always show a price should go up, and there's really nothing else to be said there. One buyer with a bunch of sellers is again iffy, and suggestions like that should really stay up, because not all buyers buy all the time, or at the same constant price.

 

It's really a case by case thing as to what items can get away with low proof - I think the hat suggestions really need to be targeted though. There are a lot of unnecessary price changes going on with them.

[Kevin the Chicken God]

I do agree, kind of. There are some items where the market is just too small and sometimes, very little proof is all there is (think some of the genuines or vintages) but I think the main offender when it comes to tiny drops are the craft hats.

 

I personally think for a craft hat to rise, there needs to be more than one sale at the suggested price (if it's 1.33 and there's a sale at 2, that could possibly be an outlier - there have been suggestions passed with only one sale at a higher amount even with a bunch of sellers lower.) When it comes to hats dropping, people tend to think they can get away with whatever, because "oh small market!!111!!1!!111! not more proof!!11!!11!111!" but if there isn't enough proof for a change, there should be no change.

 

Suggestions for items rising based on buyers are okay, though - multiple buyers always show a price should go up, and there's really nothing else to be said there. One buyer with a bunch of sellers is again iffy, and suggestions like that should really stay up, because not all buyers buy all the time, or at the same constant price.

 

It's really a case by case thing as to what items can get away with low proof - I think the hat suggestions really need to be targeted though. There are a lot of unnecessary price changes going on with them.

I'm OK with one link suggestions, it's more just the combo of one link suggestions and a virtually useless drop that needs to be changed

[A Delicious Cashew]

but if there isn't enough proof for a change, there should be no change.

This, this, and this. I don't know how many suggestions I've seen that seem rather forced. They may have been one seller who got fed up trying to sell an item for bp.tf price, lowers it 2 rec, and then someone makes a suggestion after a day. He sells it sometime between the time the suggestion is made and when a mod sees it. What exactly are we supposed to during that situation, other than leave it up? This one seller obviously does not represent the market if there's no other seller around there. People keep trying to lower things to as low as they can possibly make it. One seller at 5.88 on a common item priced at 7 with a few sellers between 6 and 7 shouldn't be priced at 5.88, as that is obviously not a common trading point.

 

Now going back on topic here, it is incredibly hard to find proof these days, with trade.tf no longer recording sales, and markets being smaller than in the past. Unfortunately, we have to live with that and just make it work. The "useless changes" were meant to be reduced by the creation of the 5% rule. A 1 scrap change may matter on low tier hats, but on anything higher, it is definitely useless and the suggestion would be in violation of the rule.

 

But yeah, it really comes down to a case by case basis on each item. The 5.88 seller example I used would be closed, but a random hat may be left up in hopes of other sales. I don't accept suggestions normally if there is no seller at the suggested price, for obvious reasons.