Change to Suggested Prices Based on Community Market

[IT_KEEPS_HAPPENING]

This has been addressed before, but I hope to do a more thorough job than has been previously done.

So, I have been doing a lot of trading the past few days involving killstreak items. On tf2outpost, there seemed to be a collective agreement that the actual value of items is significantly lower than is suggested on backpack.tf based on Steam Market prices. Take Pro Aussie Stickybomb Launchers, for example. At the time of posting, the recommended price is 32.73 keys http://i.imgur.com/dKOHMQ0.png. However, a seller of a self-proclaimed god tier pro aussie sticky launcher loaded with strange parts is selling his for a mere 30 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26595057. Hell, they can even be found for 21 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26628606. A lot of high tier items that involve killstreaks are hard to price, due to variation of effects, but the backpack.tf estimation is clearly too high in this example. However, Aussie Sticky Launchers are not the only items this issue applies to. Other items include:

Specialized Festive Rocket Launchers- Suggested price of 20.80 keys http://i.imgur.com/2GBMFhD.png vs selling prices as low as 17 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26527991.
Pro Festive Rocket Launchers- Suggested price of 38.77 keys http://i.imgur.com/0tJ0hOc.png vs selling prices as low as 28 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26632805.

Pro Festive Scattergun- Suggested price of 30.94 http://i.imgur.com/xZjcHLL.png vs selling prices as low as 27 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26639094.

 

I know these are only a few examples, but these are the first four I checked, and all of them are selling for a lot below the backpack.tf suggested price. Also, I only used the low end, because prices are all over the place (partly thanks to backpack.tf's wonky market pricing system).

So, what can be done about this? Here are my suggestions:
 

1. Fix the key monetary value system. Keys are one of the most frequently bought items using PayPal in the community, it's only fair that they have a monetary price that can be voted on by the community. Right now, keys are worth $1.97 according to backpack.tf when key sellers sell for $1.90 and $1.85 (http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26641115 and http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26273062 respectively).

2. Account for tax, as it's not already. The market prices shown in that the above screen captures are the legitimate lowest market prices at the current time. By accounting for steam tax by dividing the acquire values above by 1.15, you suddenly get 28.46 keys vs 21 keys, 18.09 keys vs 17 keys, 33.71 keys vs 28 keys, and 26.90 vs 27 keys. This is not perfect, but it is closer than backpack.tf's current formula, and some of the differences can be accounted for by sheens/effects.

3. Average successful sales over a period of time rather than listing the price as the current lowest list price. The current system causes trouble in a few ways, it overestimates the price, as the current lowest price is probably higher than the last successful sale. One example is the Pro Festive RL market, as one sold yesterday for $66.41, which means the market price is obviously not $76.42 as shown in the above picture. The other way in which this system causes issues is that it causes the price to fluctuate wildly over a short period of time. According to backpack.tf, the price of a Pro Festive RL has suddenly increased in price by $10 since yesterday, which is also very obviously not the case, as that assumption was based around one sale.


TL;DR: bp.tf market approximations are broken, but are not beyond fixing. Above are my possible suggestions on how to get a more accurate price estimate, and stop people from putting stupidly high buyouts for killstreak trading.

[Lmf]

we wouldnt have a good firm price to stay on if that were the case.

[.Dusk]

bptf prices are fine and its better if we stay away from scm prices. people base price suggestions on sales that happened to have a more accurate price. if they match up with scm prices, good its a bonus. if it doesnt? who cares.

[IT_KEEPS_HAPPENING]

My point is that sometimes backpack.tf doesn't have prices for certain things, such as the Pro KS Festive RL. Currently, they use approximation based off of the community market. Right now, the prices are overestimated. My post is a suggestion about how to fix the already used steam community market prices by backpack.tf.

[Weedoof]

The main problem I have with market-based values is that they're based off backpack's usd value for keys, which, as we all know, is radically different from the market value. Not only this, but in a world where keys can be acquired for $1.70-$1.80, the perceived usd value for keys isn't even right, since backpack says keys are $1.97.

 

An easy fix would be to make SCM prices use either the current market value of keys, or a static price of $2.49. As much as I like the backpack value boost I'm getting from inflated Killstreak values, it needs to be fixed.

[SilverSpeed]

 

 As much as I like the backpack value boost I'm getting from inflated Killstreak values, it needs to be fixed.

The site was telling me my Pro Aussie Sticky was something close to 40 keys because of the parts and while that bit of inflation was nice when I asked what I should sell at I was told around 25 would be a good price, and I just kinda trust everyone here since they do a lot more trading than I, and with a difference like that it really shows how inflated some of these prices are.

[Jacobmeister]

I have suggested this here too, in-depth: http://backpack.tf/issue/view/55aaeefbdea9e912218b45f2

 

Fully agreed.

[Zapperzz]

Complete +1 from me, this is a definite issue and this is a wonderful suggestion to fix it.  The first 2 people who commented have no clue what they're talking about.  Thanks for taking the time to type this up!!  I hope it is implemented.

 

I think one of the biggest issues on bp.tf is valuing keys based on ref's price.  This constantly values keys at insanely weird values.  I would like to see them settle on either paypal prices (1.8 - 1.9) or market prices (2.4 - 2.5)

[Tonuka]

Dont see how fixing the paypal key price would help for this problem. If you lower the price of keys that would mean the other item valued with scm would be valued even higher as they already are. Just using the scm price of keys like other pointed out already makes more sense to me.

 

Anyway apart from that I agree with you. Killstreak prices definetly need to be fixed.

[ShadowMan]

Make bp.tf count keys as current scm price w\o gaben tax, problem solved.

[IT_KEEPS_HAPPENING]

Dont see how fixing the paypal key price would help for this problem. If you lower the price of keys that would mean the other item valued with scm would be valued even higher as they already are. Just using the scm price of keys like other pointed out already makes more sense to me.

 

Anyway apart from that I agree with you. Killstreak prices definetly need to be fixed.

Good point. I can see an implementation of PayPal prices for a majority of uses, but using scm key prices when converting to keys for use in price estimation.

[knavesmith]

The site was telling me my Pro Aussie Sticky was something close to 40 keys because of the parts and while that bit of inflation was nice when I asked what I should sell at I was told around 25 would be a good price, and I just kinda trust everyone here since they do a lot more trading than I, and with a difference like that it really shows how inflated some of these prices are.

backpack.tf for some reason thinks all strange parts add 50% of their value even though it's practically impossible to get that much for your item. Same goes for paint.

[Antosheek]

tottaly in for this. Makes troubles in explaining why its wrong all the time to newbs overpricing their stuff because "bp.tf says so".

The price is currently about 20-30% higher than it should be. Making it fixed to steam community current tf2 key OR shop value price would make it more correct. 
You got 10 USD. You can either buy 4 keys or something worth 10$ on market. So what is the price of the item on market?  Should be 4 keys, since if it was lower, you could just buy the keys in store and buy it for keys. If it is higher, then why do people sell it for lower in keys? Steam tax. But that's the sellers problem. 

 

Wallet is good because you can buy games for it too,  but using the lowered wallet/key ratio for pricing stuff makes people believe they should get that much in keys too, but not in wallet. 

 

Also those prices might be correct if steam wallet would be the same as paypal money. We all know its not, since you can buy key for 2,50$ in wallet but only for 2$ in paypal. 

 

Solution - lower the current value by a % to be more right (if that is possible) or change key value to scm value for purposes of using scm prices.

 

About half price of paints and parts - this is usually correct. If you sell stuff with paints/parts free you sell it immediately, if you pick like 25% you sell it very fast. For 50% it takes some time but is doable (lower demand = less sales), altrough very hard. Depends on each paint and parts though, so I believe it is good in general.

[♠Derpeh♤]

1. Fix the key monetary value system. Keys are one of the most frequently bought items using PayPal in the community, it's only fair that they have a monetary price that can be voted on by the community. Right now, keys are worth $1.97 according to backpack.tf when key sellers sell for $1.90 and $1.85 (http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26641115 and http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26273062 respectively).

 

This has been brought up a few times to be able to actually suggest paypal prices for keys because atm it's based off refs and the reply to that is essentially no because it includes a complete overhaul of the pricing system.

[Carnage]

I very much agree this needs to change, however if you're using the SCM for item pricing you should use the current SCM key price as well. It isn't perfect but it is much better than the current system. Less experienced traders are getting fooled by this.

http://imgur.com/aS7f6Vq

[Antosheek]

The thing why this bothers me so much is the fact that you can never get the "suggested price" by backpack.tf. No one will ever pay that, nor in normal trading (sties) nor in community market. There is always some kind of loss and people don't want to cope with that.