Question about pricing unusuals in none-pure sales

[Teeny Tiny Cat]

I am a fairly new suggester, having started a couple of weeks ago, but I have one big question that is confusing me a lot. In pretty much all price suggestions for unusuals, I see people using the most recent price or doing minis for outdated unusuals involved in sales. However, the rules explicitly state that the pricing should be based on the suggestion closest to the time of the trade. Quoting Polar in the guide to unusual suggestion thread:
 

 

• The values of items in a trade should be the "value" of the item at the time of the trade.
  • This can be very tricky as it can be difficult to extrapolate the value of an item on March 1 when the two most recent suggestions were on February 1 and April 1. In most scenarios, the value should based on the accepted suggestion closest in time to the date of the trade. For unusuals, this is usually the most recent suggestion for a hat since they are rarely updated, but this is not always the case. Many new unusuals are updated every 2-4 weeks. 

Examples: 

- If the sale happened on April 1 and there are two suggestions at March 1 and April 2, the April 2 suggestion value should be used.

- If the sale happened on April 1 and there are two suggestions at March 30 and April 30, the March 30 suggestion value should be used.

 

To further complicate matters, some items (like buds or the bmoc) drop precipitously. So using this method may not be reliable. To the best of your ability, try to use the "value" of the item at the time of the sale. If that is too hard to predict, that proof should be avoided in making the suggestion.

 

 

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-guide-for-unusual-price-suggestions/

 

Based on this quote, I would think that a sale involving an outdated hat would not require a mini if the price was in-date at the time of sale. And even with recently updated hats, the suggested price closest to the time of sale should be used. But I don't think I have ever seen anyone make suggestions that way.

 

So just wondering if someone could clarify the rule on this for me.

 

Hope I put this in the right section. Thanks a lot in advance, any help would be appreciated.

[Roller]

What Polar meant in the quote was to search for the value that has given to the non-unusual item at that particular time the sale happened.

 

Unusuals just go by their rule, it will be outdated if its 3 months or more. It would be needed to do a mini if the unusual is outdated, or involving duped, gifted, Killstreak items and also if it's outdated.

 

This is from what I know while doing unusual suggestion.

[Teeny Tiny Cat]

What Polar meant in the quote was to search for the value that has given to the non-unusual item at that particular time the sale happened.

 

Unusuals just go by their rule, it will be outdated if its 3 months or more. It would be needed to do a mini if the unusual is outdated, or involving duped, gifted, Killstreak items and also if it's outdated.

 

This is from what I know while doing unusual suggestion.

 

But that isn't what the rule says, that's why I'm confused. What you're saying is definitely what I see in practice, but the rule I quoted says to use the suggestion closest to the date of the sale. It may not come up much as a lot of unusuals are not priced regularly, but in the case where there is a suggestion close to the date of the sale but the current price is outdated, the rule would suggest using the old suggested price rather than doing a mini. I'm aware no-one does this, but just curious why when it is in the rules.

[The One]

(I am not a mod, so take this however you would like. If I make a mistake, please correct me.)

 

These rules are guidelines. They are not set in stone. The prices are estimates and we are after the estimate with the highest confidence. Sometimes exceptions (and errors) may occur, but as long as they are at a certain confidence level, they are fine.

 

Majority of the time, this is applied to promos, high tiered stranges and currencies as their values change rapidly. It is irrational to use 5 keys as the value of earbuds when the sale happened when buds were worth 12 keys.

 

This rule definitely applies to unusuals, but the cases are rare due to the nature of unusual prices and the rate of their changes. Valid sales are within 2 months and unusuals become outdated within 3 months. This means if the unusual used in the sale is outdated, it is unlikely for it to be up-to-date at the time of sale.

 

A bit hard to understand; I hope I am making sense.

 

So generally, the only time your condition of "sale involving an outdated hat + price was in-date at the time of sale" would be satisfied is when the sale is ~2 months old and the hat in question is 3-5 months outdated. This itself is a rare case.

 

Suppose the hat is 4 months outdated. Depending on the hat (and relating to my first point of exceptions can be made), it is sometimes fine to use the outdated hat's price (a mini would still be preferred). For example, a hat was priced at 20 keys 4 months ago, its market has not changed in these 4 months and is still selling for 20 keys. 

 

Suppose the hat is 5 months outdated. The markets of most hats would change in 5 months, and a mini would be closer to the sale, and thus more accurate even though the hat was not outdated at the time.

 

Rather than constantly checking whether the outdated hat's price is valid or not, suggesters developed the habit of just providing a mini when they see an outdated hat. Generally, this is also more accurate and probably more efficient. 

[The One]

The rule is also needed when the unusuals are not outdated. 

 

For example:

 

Hat Y was 100 keys 3 months ago. Then something happened 2 months ago and hyped its price to 200 keys. After another month, hyped died and its price dropped to 150 keys.

 

Hat Z is unpriced and was sold for hat Y 2 month ago. Which value of Hat Y do we use?

 

Probably 200 keys.

[LaughingLollipop]

basically... all the prices are 'wrong'

 

its rather silly to argue that the rules are being followed or that the prices have any accuracy remaining

[Teeny Tiny Cat]

Ok

 

<snip>

 

Alright, let me give an example.

 

I am trying to price Hat A. Hat A was offered with X items for Hat B 2 months ago.

Hat B is outdated, with the last suggestion 5 months ago.

Hat B's outdated list price is 250 keys.

A mini for Hat B puts it's value at around 100 keys.

When Hat A was traded for Hat B, it was done so on the basis that both people involved in the trade valued Hat B at 200+ keys.

Therefore, using a mini that reflects the current price of Hat B does not accurately reflect the value of Hat A at the time of sale.

It may be more accurate to price Hat A using the suggestion from 5 months ago, which was in date at the time of the sale.

 

It may be a rare case but it's relevant to a suggestion I'm trying to figure out, so it's worth clarifying. You said in your post "a mini would still be preferable" but I don't really understand why? Even if a hat is in date, if there's a suggestion closer to the time of the sale then that would be a more accurate price to use in valuing that sale (not the hat in general) in my opinion.

 

basically... all the prices are 'wrong'

 

its rather silly to argue that the rules are being followed or that the prices have any accuracy remaining

 

I'm not really sure what you mean by this, sorry.