BOOM! Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Everything here is only my opinion and not to be meant as trading advice, take from it what you like. I just spent like 30 mins writing this and my keyboard and mouse had a spazum and I somehow hit the back button or backspace or something and deleted everything. GG. I will now do it all over. Anyways, let me get strait to scenarios of traders from all different blocks of there trading life, and by the end you will see that buds will keep falling in value. Scenario 1: I am a low-midtier unusual trader, and I am trading for profit. The unusuals I have are below 150 keys or so in value, and I notice that with the fall of buds by items are being devalued. If I am selling any items for buds, I quickly transform the price into keys so I can have a stable currency when they sell. - Now this is a very real situation, and lets think about the effects: Any person buying an unusual that this person has needs to transform there buds to keys. In a perfect would this would not matter, but in a world of undercutters and quicksellers the price is bound to decrease when alot of people sell.Scenario 2: A person who buys unusuals because he likes them and not for profit notices more and more people won't take buds for there unusuals, so he quickly transforms his buds to keys before they devalue any more. - More buds on the market means more undercutting, and in the end more devaluing of buds.Scenario 3: All throughout the community people are aware of buds devaluing and rumors of it being useless as a currency are started, this creates what is known as hype and people sell there buds fast so they don't devalue to much. Once again, this leads to more buds on the market and devaluing of them.Scenario 4: A currency flipper notices the decreased price of buds, and as result buys buds for less. This can be seen all the time on trade.tf, people sell for less on classifieds, and highest buying price goes down so they can gain more/lose less. This means that if anyone sells to him, he will sell for less so he can get rid of them before they have the opportunity to devalue more. ONCE AGAIN this starts a chain-reaction and bud prices go down.Scenario 5: A person who sells unusuals and wants keys and will also accept buds values buds rididuclosely low so he can sell them for profit because he also thinks they will drop, this discourages people from buying in buds, so they put there buds on the market and sell them. You know what this does.. ____________________________________________________________________________ As you can see, buds are really only needed by high-high tier unusual traders where it is unfeasible to add 500 keys to a trade, and most people in the tf2 community cant afford 500 keys, it is only for the very rich(in terms of tf2). This being said, until a new currency is found a) Buds will lose value and popularity among most traders, but still be used as a high-tier currency among high value traders. b.) Buds will become to devalued they are not worth using as an alternate currency and will see for 1-2 keys purely because of there cosmetic value. c) One day, as alot of people like to think, buds will magically and for 'some reason' start rising again, however I can never see this happening as things don't start ricing for no reason. d) Buds will become obsolete as a new currency accepted by most traders come into play. I personally think the outcome is b. What do you guys think? I want to hear your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Hawk Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Scenario 2 is kind of off. I don't think there's enough traders that WON'T accept buds that would cause this. The biggest cause is probably scenario 3. The second people notice buds dropping, a lot of people panic sale. Most likely a or c is my guess. Like I've heard and said before, keys are basically $1 bills, while buds are simply $10 bills. Would you prefer carrying 100 $1s or 10 $10s? I'm hoping buds have another dead cat bounce, or people stop panic selling and they slowly rise back up to ~ 12-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puddilicious Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Well, buds isn't the only thing dropping in price. Almost everything is. Max's Heads are still roughly 3 buds despite buds dropping in price. If it was just the unusual market affecting buds, then everything else wouldn't be dropping as well. The entire economy is dropping in value. People are leaving the game and/or have stopped caring about items. You're right about one thing; buds will continue to drop in price because the economy hasn't hit rock bottom yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redpoemage Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I agree with pretty much everything that you say except for a minor term thing in Scenario 3. I would call that panic instead of hype. Hype is usually for things going up while panic is mass selling in fear that things will go down. Also, Outcome C is clearly the best outcome because suggestions like this ill save the economy!: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55197215b98d88a9178b459a All will be happy ...seriously, I agree with outcome B unless Valve gives buds some other function (a CS:GO music kit type thing or something? I dunno. Not sure they can even legally do that with a promo). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FourKings Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Buds and maxes will eventually come do to a price that is on par with their cosmetic value and rarity. Keys are king because the have an intrinsic value since they all originally came from the store and have a use as a tool.(which get used changing the amount available)money, which is metal) as more metal is introduced the price will continue to drop. I havent pesonally done the calculation but my guess would be that buds "value" in metal hasnt really changed that much, its that keys are more expensive. In other words you can probably get the same amount, or close to, of refined once its converted. Keys are king and backpack.tf should revamp the pricing to reflect prices in keys until a new currency arrives on the market. Buds and maxes are dead. I use them only when I buy a hat advertised as accepting buds as more keys than I can buy buds for. e.g A hat was 3.5 buds he was taking buds as 9.5 so I went and bought 3 buds for 8keys and therefore saved 6 keys. Bottom line: Keys are king and buds are dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zapperzz Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 I don't agree that buds will go down to 1-2 keys. We can't convert unusuals into key prices as fast as buds are falling and because of that people will want to buy buds to buy unusuals priced in buds. Even if those people won't accept buds for their unusuals, people with 5-7 keys will think that if they buy 1 bud with those keys than the person with that 1 bud unusual will take their 1 bud. Also rich traders with lots of keys might decide to buy buds once they reach a certain low price. They know if they buy enough buds that will create a hype that will raise buds. I don't think we as a community can completely toss buds into the trash can. As Mike Hawk said they're like a 10 dollar bill, and it seems insane to stop using them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scout608 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 I agree with pretty much everything that you say except for a minor term thing in Scenario 3. I would call that panic instead of hype. Hype is usually for things going up while panic is mass selling in fear that things will go down. Also, Outcome C is clearly the best outcome because suggestions like this ill save the economy!: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55197215b98d88a9178b459a All will be happy ...seriously, I agree with outcome B unless Valve gives buds some other function (a CS:GO music kit type thing or something? I dunno. Not sure they can even legally do that with a promo). why would valve swoop to the rescue for buds? it would be better for them if people bought more keys from the store and i hope you're kidding about the option c being the best part and as my own 2 cents, eventually i as a trader with decently high priced stuff in buds will start to ignore the bp prices for my unusuals until someone prices them in keys with other solds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuuko-San Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 There are many factors that contribute to the fact that buds are dropping. A mix of panic selling due to devaluation, with the fact that buds are just not needed anymore. Buds gained value because they had to. Back when you were only allowed 8 items per trade and everything was a farce, when TF2TP still had some trading value (hehe). Nowadays with ref losing more and more value, keys just become premium. People buy more because they think they'd get more for their $, and the ones on the market that have fermented have been mass collected, making the select few very happy. Remember at Christmas when they went up again? Hype. We're in a community dictated by hype. "Ooh shiny, I'll pay a lot" "No I'll pay more" and so becomes the grudge match well the person with pure holding the cards. Constantly undercutting everyone while trying to push that extra scrap out of the buyer has led to this. I'm not saying it's bad, and everyone who keeps saying "oh the economy is dying #savetheeconomy" can screw off. Sure, the economy is fluctuating, but that's the nature of it. A good example of this was earlier, someone tried to buy my C-Moon Bonnet, priced at 5 buds (65 keys at the time). The sale was in keys, yet the person buying was only offering 30 odd keys. More than half, yet still a good 4~ buds. I'm happy with the conversion to buds to keys, I just think following backpack.tf price for older unusuals is not viable until it's been completely revamped. (Also this wasn't a disagreement with OP, just my own input into the matter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gren Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 I don't agree that buds will go down to 1-2 keys. We can't convert unusuals into key prices as fast as buds are falling and because of that people will want to buy buds to buy unusuals priced in buds. Even if those people won't accept buds for their unusuals, people with 5-7 keys will think that if they buy 1 bud with those keys than the person with that 1 bud unusual will take their 1 bud. Also rich traders with lots of keys might decide to buy buds once they reach a certain low price. They know if they buy enough buds that will create a hype that will raise buds. I don't think we as a community can completely toss buds into the trash can. As Mike Hawk said they're like a 10 dollar bill, and it seems insane to stop using them. Look at all the recently updated prices, a lot of them are now in keys (because the sales are happening in keys). The whole valuation of unusuals is being overhauled currently and it's pretty clear that buds don't have much of a place there anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1+1=3 ? Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 People just don't want to admit the fact that tf2 is losing its popularity and that's why many high-valued items drop. If there is enough demand, i don't think earbuds, max and b.m.o.c etc will drop. Many traders i know quit tf2. Tf2 is dying is true. Trust me or not. There are more casual players and fewer serious players that are willing to pay for a expensive items in tf2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
❤ΣκαπανέαςGr❤ Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Scenario 2 is kind of off. I don't think there's enough traders that WON'T accept buds that would cause this. The biggest cause is probably scenario 3. The second people notice buds dropping, a lot of people panic sale. Most likely a or c is my guess. Like I've heard and said before, keys are basically $1 bills, while buds are simply $10 bills. Would you prefer carrying 100 $1s or 10 $10s? I'm hoping buds have another dead cat bounce, or people stop panic selling and they slowly rise back up to ~ 12-14 but when buds drop down to 2-3 keys not even the high tier traders will accept them as currency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuuko-San Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 People just don't want to admit the fact that tf2 is losing its popularity and that's why many high-valued items drop. If there is enough demand, i don't think earbuds, max and b.m.o.c etc will drop. Many traders i know quit tf2. Tf2 is dying is true. Trust me or not. There are more casual players and fewer serious players that are willing to pay for a expensive items in tf2 TF2 itself dying? God no. The community? Yes. There's a big difference. The trading community is becoming much more tight knit, especially with high tier items. You always hear about X getting a god tier. I don't attribute this change to the fact buds are dropping however, I think it's just because the economy is changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
❤ΣκαπανέαςGr❤ Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 People just don't want to admit the fact that tf2 is losing its popularity and that's why many high-valued items drop. If there is enough demand, i don't think earbuds, max and b.m.o.c etc will drop. Many traders i know quit tf2. Tf2 is dying is true. Trust me or not. There are more casual players and fewer serious players that are willing to pay for a expensive items in tf2 no I just sold an aussie pro smg for 36 euro in SCM then I bought another for 11 keys and sold it again for 36 euro on scm.this is bullshit ppl just dont give a shit about buds and thats it.there are so many cool stuff you can buy and you can do so directly on steam market buds are not needed any more for casual trades since everything is marketable we prefer to buy them there and if we decide to sell we sell them there. the only way traders to get over with this crisis is to actually start trading for items rather than quickselling for pure.as long as they keep on qs they wont get any profit as the buyers know exactly well how much they can sell something on the market for. Also bp.tf should follow steam market prices.this way buds might stand a chance.but with the current cooldown and suggesting system they don't they will be worth 1 key in 1 month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuuko-San Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 no I just sold an aussie pro smg for 36 euro in SCM then I bought another for 11 keys and sold it again for 36 euro on scm.this is bullshit ppl just dont give a shit about buds and thats it.there are so many cool stuff you can buy and you can do so directly on steam market buds are not needed any more for casual trades since everything is marketable we prefer to buy them there and if we decide to sell we sell them there. the only way traders to get over with this crisis is to actually start trading for items rather than quickselling for pure.as long as they keep on qs they wont get any profit as the buyers know exactly well how much they can sell something on the market for. wat. I've personally never used the market, the only times I do use it is when hype happens, I sold 14 crate 92s, when they first came out, for a key each. Which would equate to 2 buds worth now. Besides that, I've never had issues selling and buying for profit? Quickbuying and selling has always happened, perhaps moreso now, with the influx of pure, but I don't think it's causing the crisis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
❤ΣκαπανέαςGr❤ Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 wat. I've personally never used the market, the only times I do use it is when hype happens, I sold 14 crate 92s, when they first came out, for a key each. Which would equate to 2 buds worth now. Besides that, I've never had issues selling and buying for profit? Quickbuying and selling has always happened, perhaps moreso now, with the influx of pure, but I don't think it's causing the crisis I basically only trade(create wtb trades on outpost on prefix prices and only accept trade offers) to resell in market.I do not like the trading method where I have to chat with a bunch of kids and negotiate over 0.05$ deferences I sit on over 6000 market transactions at the moment and I am very pleased out of the profit that market provides without the hustle of lowballers and the rest that casual trades are escorted with... there is no crisis. there is 1 single misc that fails and thats about it. can you provide me other items out of the entire steam market catalog that fails as much ,as I see it they just return to their starting point ,buds where traded for paints on my days its not weird for me if they return to that point again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ŴƬЯ-A Vakume Kleener Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 tl;dr Stop whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boogeyman™ Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Gravity !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuuko-San Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 I basically only trade(create wtb trades on outpost on prefix prices and only accept trade offers) to resell in market.I do not like the trading method where I have to chat with a bunch of kids and negotiate over 0.05$ deferences I sit on over 6000 market transactions at the moment and I am very pleased out of the profit that market provides without the hustle of lowballers and the rest that casual trades are escorted with... there is no crisis. there is 1 single misc that fails and thats about it. can you provide me other items out of the entire steam market catalog that fails as much ,as I see it they just return to their starting point ,buds where traded for paints on my days its not weird for me if they return to that point again.. Not everyone knows how to use the market to that extent, and honestly, that negotation brings half of trading. Getting that extra ref can make a lot of difference to lower tier traders. I've made a 2 bud profit off buying a unusual, then selling it onto others, through the medium of negotiation. The market is very mechanised, with very little support for higher tier trading. I can understand with low tier stuff, and CS:GO, but else I'm not sure I agree. tl;dr Stop whining. Not the way to go about stuff, especially in a debate. Just makes you look immature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ŴƬЯ-A Vakume Kleener Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Not the way to go about stuff, especially in a debate. Just makes you look immature. Sorry bro. Could you repeat that? I couldn't hear you over the sound of me not caring. Too many people are making these stupid theories about the market crashing, but who cares? Nothing we can do unless someone sets a key sell for 2.66 and a bud buy order for 25 keys. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scout608 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Sorry bro. Could you repeat that? I couldn't hear you over the sound of me not caring. Too many people are making these stupid theories about the market crashing, but who cares? Nothing we can do unless someone sets a key sell for 2.66 and a bud buy order for 25 keys. :/ >implying the economy can only be fixed if everything goes back to the way it was about a year ago if that were to happen, it would simply push this back, this is something that ought to happen, since the value of buds is mostly in control by the buyers at this point, not the sellers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuuko-San Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Sorry bro. Could you repeat that? I couldn't hear you over the sound of me not caring. Too many people are making these stupid theories about the market crashing, but who cares? Nothing we can do unless someone sets a key sell for 2.66 and a bud buy order for 25 keys. :/ One seller isn't going to do anything. There's no "stupid theories", the market is dictated by sales and sellers. PLURAL. What you're getting at is a very basic market led by sheep. You're obviously caring by the fact you're making some bs excuse of a way of "fixing" the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FourKings Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 A few days ago i looked at the prices on bp classifieds for earbuds. There were a ton of sellers at 5 keys but nothing less than that. Some smart people must have bought up a bunch because within 2 days they were back up to selling for 8-9 keys. Now they are back 7 or high 6 keys. This is the market and just like a stock if the price of buds significantly breaks that 5 key bottom, the price will truly crash. I believe there is support at 5 keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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