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Why unusuals are priced in buds


FoxiE

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As we all see buds are dying.

And all unusual items are prices in buds.

Me and tons of another traders lost tons of procit, becouse bud drop = unusual drop

Why hats aren't priced in keys? With old but prices.

Why by bud drop made by bp.tf hats must drop too.

And tbh only on thing that make buds dying is bp.tf classifields, that should be !OFF!

What do you think?

What can save unusual trading?

Are any admins there?

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It's hard to take you seriously with such broken English. Furthermore, you're complaining mainly because you're losing profit because of the fall of buds.

 

If you check out the countless other threads regarding keys, buds, and the pricing system, you will learn why we price most Unusuals in buds.

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540 buds == 6075 keys

 

Ain't nobody got enough inventory space for that many keys

Because 540 buds trades just happen every day. Nope, most of the hats moving around are below 10 buds which is only 100 keys now.

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This was explained by polar pretty well already. Just search a bit and you will find his posts.

do you honestly expect anybody on these forums to do research before they post

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This was explained by polar pretty well already. Just search a bit and you will find his posts.

 

Hmm yes.  Polar explained that the value of buds is an expression of the general demand in unusuals.  So in other words, buds dropping means there's less demand in unusuals.  I'm not saying that correlation isn't there, but it doesn't explain the extreme fall in buds we've seen in the past two months.  I keep quoting the bud and key graph from the front page when people say "this happens every year".  No it doesn't.  The current trend of buds and keys has not happened in recent years.  Look at the graphs.  The respective extreme downward and upward shifts have not been observed before, the fluctuations were much less severe and further, followed different patters.   

 

What we see today is not only the result of people unboxing and selling keys on SCM for games, it's also (and probably to a higher degree), the product of mass panic (that buds will soon be worthless) and the belief that keys will rise indefinitely.   

 

Is it still valuable to price hats in buds?  I don't know.  But if the current trend continues, buds will be at 9 keys by the end of next week.  That means that all hats have lost 50% of the value they held in keys only three months ago.  So when I had to pay 190 keys for a ten bud hat in September, I know have to pay only 90 keys.  That somehow just doesn't seem right to me.  

 

However, maybe it's a natural correction.  We've seen such a high inflow of new hats in the last couple of months (and before that; see huge number of 3rd gens since introduction 1.5 years ago), maybe unusuals have to priced much lower now, due to the fact that there's a much higher number in existence.  

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Hmm yes.  Polar explained that the value of buds is an expression of the general demand in unusuals.  So in other words, buds dropping means there's less demand in unusuals.  I'm not saying that correlation isn't there, but it doesn't explain the extreme fall in buds we've seen in the past two months.  I keep quoting the bud and key graph from the front page when people say "this happens every year".  No it doesn't.  The current trend of buds and keys has not happened in recent years.  Look at the graphs.  The respective extreme downward and upward shifts have not been observed before, the fluctuations were much less severe and further, followed different patters.   

 

What we see today is not only the result of people unboxing and selling keys on SCM for games, it's also (and probably to a higher degree), the product of mass panic (that buds will soon be worthless) and the belief that keys will rise indefinitely.   

 

Is it still valuable to price hats in buds?  I don't know.  But if the current trend continues, buds will be at 9 keys by the end of next week.  That means that all hats have lost 50% of the value they held in keys only three months ago.  So when I had to pay 190 keys for a ten bud hat in September, I know have to pay only 90 keys.  That somehow just doesn't seem right to me.  

 

However, maybe it's a natural correction.  We've seen such a high inflow of new hats in the last couple of months (and before that; see huge number of 3rd gens since introduction 1.5 years ago), maybe unusuals have to priced much lower now, due to the fact that there's a much higher number in existence.  

 

This does happen every year, it's just that this year other factors have played a significant part in making the drop this year, such as an influx of new unusuals, higher-than-average key demand, and people finally realising refined metal is worth jack-sh*t all.

 

Like all currencies not backed up by something with worth (like a gold standard), our currency's value is based on confidence. If the confidence goes, so does the value. Give it time.

 

'' So when I had to pay 190 keys for a ten bud hat in September, I know have to pay only 90 keys.'' 

This explains perfectly why unusuals should remain priced in buds.

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Hmm yes.  Polar explained that the value of buds is an expression of the general demand in unusuals.  So in other words, buds dropping means there's less demand in unusuals.  I'm not saying that correlation isn't there, but it doesn't explain the extreme fall in buds we've seen in the past two months.  I keep quoting the bud and key graph from the front page when people say "this happens every year".  No it doesn't.  The current trend of buds and keys has not happened in recent years.  Look at the graphs.  The respective extreme downward and upward shifts have not been observed before, the fluctuations were much less severe and further, followed different patters.   

 

What we see today is not only the result of people unboxing and selling keys on SCM for games, it's also (and probably to a higher degree), the product of mass panic (that buds will soon be worthless) and the belief that keys will rise indefinitely.   

 

Is it still valuable to price hats in buds?  I don't know.  But if the current trend continues, buds will be at 9 keys by the end of next week.  That means that all hats have lost 50% of the value they held in keys only three months ago.  So when I had to pay 190 keys for a ten bud hat in September, I know have to pay only 90 keys.  That somehow just doesn't seem right to me.  

 

However, maybe it's a natural correction.  We've seen such a high inflow of new hats in the last couple of months (and before that; see huge number of 3rd gens since introduction 1.5 years ago), maybe unusuals have to priced much lower now, due to the fact that there's a much higher number in existence.  

 

I don't think unusual market is the only reason of course. But it's probably one of them. Too many hats, too many effects. So many choices make the prices drop. This applies to lots of other things.

 

However, one of the possible reasons that I see is this one: metal becoming cheaper. Metal is one of the main currencies used in TF2. It's free and it's generated by players who invest their time into playing the game. There's a high amount of players who never buy anything (multitude of reasons) for real cash and they only spend what they make in the game. The "buying power" of this group is directly measured by what they make in terms of metal. 2 years ago, keys were roughly 2,55 (you could often buy 2 keys for 5 ref) and buds were ~27 keys. That means you had to gather roughly 70 refined to buy 1 pair of buds. As the metal gets less valuable (possibly by keeping the drop rate constant rather than having a logarithmic distribution) the ability of the group to afford items diminishes. So what happens? The market (demand) shrinks, because this group can't afford these items anymore. To make everything balanced again, price of items slightly adjusts while expensive items are affected the most. This behaviour goes on and on.

 

Anyway, this is just how I see things. Price graphs on bp.tf roughly correspond to this behaviour while you can also see some unexpected moments (such as Earbuds going on a roller coaster couple times).

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This does happen every year, it's just that this year other factors have played a significant part in making the drop this year, such as an influx of new unusuals, higher-than-average key demand, and people finally realising refined metal is worth jack-sh*t all.

 

Like all currencies not backed up by something with worth (like a gold standard), our currency's value is based on confidence. If the confidence goes, so does the value. Give it time.

 

'' So when I had to pay 190 keys for a ten bud hat in September, I know have to pay only 90 keys.'' 

This explains perfectly why unusuals should remain priced in buds.

 

You're wrong Gent.  When you say :"This does happen every year", you're implying that the trend of previous years is more or less repeating itself, which it isn't: 

 

Key Graph: 

3042bfefb0.png

 

Bud Graph: 

752f025db0.png

 

Please don't tell me this has happened before when the respective trends of the last couple of months have not occurred anywhere in the data before.  Just because there was an slight increase before doesn't mean that it's perfectly  normal to have an extreme increase now.  

 

I'm not saying this thing's about to crash, but I'm saying the current trends have not been observed before.  The truth is in the numbers.  

 

"This explains why unusuals should remain priced in buds". 

 

Only problem of course is that buds are priced in keys :/

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You're wrong Gent.  When you say :"This does happen every year", you're implying that the trend of previous years is more or less repeating itself, which it isn't: 

 

Key Graph: 

3042bfefb0.png

 

Bud Graph: 

752f025db0.png

 

Please don't tell me this has happened before when the respective trends of the last couple of months have not occurred anywhere in the data before.  Just because there was an increase before doesn't mean that it's normal to have an extreme increase now.  

 

I'm not saying this thing's about to crash, but I'm saying the current trends have not been observed before.  The truth is in the numbers.  

 

"This explains why unusuals should remain priced in buds". 

 

Only problem of course is that buds are priced in keys :/

 

That graph perfectly demonstrates my point. Every year there's a trough between October and January. It's just that this year it's much more severe in line with the already occurring downward trend.

 

I'd be confident in predicting buds resettling at ~15-16 at the end of January.

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That graph perfectly demonstrates my point. Every year there's a trough between October and January. It's just that this year it's much more severe in line with the already occurring downward trend.

 

The graph perfectly disproves your point.  Show me how the trends have been seen before.  Show me where in the graph we've seen such an extreme increase in keys before and such a large drop in buds.  You can't because it hasn't happened before.  

 

When you say this has happened before, your argument kinda goes like this:  Inflation the last three years was 1% on an annual basis.  This year it's 4% but it's totally normal, simply because it's an increase, nothing to worry about.  

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That graph perfectly demonstrates my point. Every year there's a trough between October and January. It's just that this year it's much more severe in line with the already occurring downward trend.

 

I'd be confident in predicting buds resettling at ~15-16 at the end of January.

 

You can clearly see on the bud graph that it's going downward with sudden drop at the end. Key graph on the other hand is somewhat similar but going up.

 

Btw. the small ups and downs are not contradicting what Gren or I am saying.

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The graph perfectly disproves your point.  Show me how the trends have been seen before.  Show me where in the graph we've seen such an extreme increase in keys before and such a large drop in buds.  You can't because it hasn't happened before.  

 

When you say this has happened before, your argument kinda goes like this:  Inflation the last three years was 1% on an annual basis.  This year it's 4% but it's totally normal, simply because it's an increase, nothing to worry about.  

I'm not saying the currency isn't inflating, because it is. I'm just saying it's not quite as god-awful as everyone's making it out to be.

Buds will go back up after Christmas. They won't be 20 keys again, but they'll go back up.

Keys will likely level off (at least) after Christmas. They won't drop like a stone, but still.

 

Nobody will know if the doomsayers are right until after Christmas.

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