The folly of using refined to define the bp.tf value of your backpack

[buddhapest]

the current system of setting the value of items and backpacks in USD is broken and always has been.

 

here's how it works right now:

1. items priced in refined are added to your refined total

2. items priced in keys/earbuds are converted to refined and added to your refined total

3. your final refined total is multiplied by the USD price for refined and that's how your backpack value is established

 

there are many problems with this approach, but here are the most glaring:

1. the price of keys in refined changes the value of every item priced in keys/earbuds

2. the price of refined in USD is established from a very niche market with very few trades (in relation to most items)

 

backpack value is therefore artificial and extremely unstable:

example:

you have 20 keys at a time when a key sells for 7 refined.  at 0.24USD per refined the value of your 20 keys is $33.60 ($1.68 per key)

when the value of keys goes to 8 refined you now have $38.40 ($1.92 per key)

 

neither is correct without adjusting refined pricing

 

the reality is that the USD value of keys has not changed.  it's still around $1.85 in the private paypal market.

 

but the biggest problem is that this choice backpack.tf made in an arbitrary way because of software, not economic concerns, actually effects the price of everything in both blatant and subtle ways.  we're constantly forced to ride waves of refined price readjustment whenever the price of keys (in refined) changes.  and these are drastically delayed causing artifically high or low backpack value.

 

the solution to stabilizing value and making it more realistic: use keys and buds to define the value of the backpack.  keys and buds sell at a stable USD price.  for items priced in refined, the USD price of refined could be used or a current conversion of keys to refined which is actually more accurate.

 

this approach would finally evaluate backpacks based on the real world price of items that get sold and bought for real money *all the time*, not this nebulous refined niche market.  and it would not require a constant balance of refined -> key -> bud to establish actual item value.

 

the final argument: no one is ever going to cash out by converting to refined and selling the refined.  you trade to buds and keys and sell those for the market rate.  that's what the backpack value should be based on.

 

(my backpack gained $100USD in value in the latest key price hike - i added no new items and none of my more expensive items were repriced.  just keys.  that's total BS)

[RageofFir]

So instead of pricing in refine you want pricing in keys... How do you judge items lower than a key then?

[LaughingLollipop]

So instead of pricing in refine you want pricing in keys... How do you judge items lower than a key then?

 

you ignore them because they are irrelevant.

[Aearsears]

are you french?

[3v1lcl0n3]

best solution is custom values for refined <.<

[buddhapest]

So instead of pricing in refine you want pricing in keys... How do you judge items lower than a key then?

"for items priced in refined, the USD price of refined could be used or a current conversion of keys to refined which is actually more accurate."

[RageofFir]

approach.

best solution is custom values for refined <.<

Explain.

 

Possibly "

"for items priced in refined, the USD price of refined could be used or a current conversion of keys to refined which is actually more accurate."

Alright we still run into the problem of single digit key prices. What's 1.5 keys? Unless we too price them into refine or we run into huge price differences, sabatoging the whole "be as accurate as possible

[buddhapest]

Alright we still run into the problem of single digit key prices. What's 1.5 keys? Unless we too price them into refine or we run into huge price differences, sabatoging the whole "be as accurate as possible

i'm talking about the backpack.tf USD value, not refined.  1.5 keys is worth $1.85*1.5 = $2.78

[Jakey-Boo]

Because how much your backpack is worth is very important (sarcasm)

[dabaers]

Because how much your backpack is worth is very important (sarcasm)

Some people who want to sell their whole bp quote the backpack.tf value of it. And it can obviously be used as a rough estimate in how rich a trader is without looking at every item.

[RageofFir]

i'm talking about the backpack.tf USD value, not refined.  1.5 keys is worth $1.85*1.5 = $2.78

Wait I'm confused how is that any different from what we do now?

[buddhapest]

Because how much your backpack is worth is very important (sarcasm)

 

it's more important than you think.  a lot of hype is attached to the value graph.  the fact that the change in the key->refined ratio can effect the value of a backpack can cause a panic which can lead to price changes in trading.

 

and it's all because of one simple decision: bp.tf decided long ago to price everything internally in refined, an item that has a limited real world value.

 

backpack claims accuracy as a goal and yet the system itself is designed innaccurately.

 

Wait I'm confused how is that any different from what we do now?

 

right now your 1.5key item is converted to refined and then the USD value established on the refined * 0.24 (current refined price).

 

at 8 ref per key, your 1.5 key item is thus worth $2.88.  at 7 ref per key, your 1.5 key item is worth $2.52.  but in reality, your 1.5 key item is worth $2.78 regardless of the conversion from keys to refined.

 

i know this seems subtle but it actually causes unnecessary fluctuations in pricing.  let the refined -> USD market have its pricing, key -> USD its own, and buds -> USD its own again.  because the latter two (keys and buds) are traded between virtual and real life currency all the time.  the former (refined) is an extremely niche market.

[3v1lcl0n3]

approach. Explain.

 

 

 

i have to correct myself. put custom values of keys.

 

example > custom value is 1.8$

Case#1:

backpack is worth 16 ref (only items)

keys are 8 ref

16 / 8 = 2 * 1.8$ = 3.6$ bp value

 

keys rise to 9 ref

16 / 9 = 1.777 * 1.8 = 3.2$ bp value

 

Case#2:

backpack is worth 16 ref (8 in items,1 key)

8 / 8 = 1 * 1.8$ + 1.8$ (the key pure) = 3.6$

 

keys rise to 9 ref

8 / 9 =~ 1.6$ + 1.8$ (the key pure) = 3.4$ 

 

Case#3:

backpack is worth 16 ref (2 keys)

2 * 1.8 = 3.6$

 

keys rise to 10000 ref

2 * 1.8 = 3.6$

 

 

i can make calculations for what happens now if someone doesn't get the difference <.< 

[buddhapest]

you're making it unnecessarily confusing, 3v1lcl0n3.

 

the point is to not convert a bp into refined at all and value everything in the currency that traders actually trade in.

 

(this is how the trade.tf model works, btw.)

 

the conversion from keys to ref (or keys to buds) should only matter during individual trades.

 

suggestions for key to USD prices would be vastly more accurate (and stable) than converting keys to ref and then pricing based on price of ref.

 

remember, the main issue here is that bp.tf is a database and chose to keep everything in one currency as part of the schema design. this is broken and leads to a latency in accuracy.

[3v1lcl0n3]

you're making it unnecessarily confusing, 3v1lcl0n3.

 

 

lol confusing. you are underestimating the thinking power of everyone else.

i am fairly sure most people understood it.

 

anyhow there are two solutions:

1.making a $ price for keys with the market sales (BAD) and then calculating how i did above

2.introducing custom key values (and using the calculation that i put as a guideline to how value will be calculated) (GOOD)

[buddhapest]

the latest drop in refined made me think of this topic again.  because of the "convert all items to refined and apply price of refined to calculate backpack value" i think bp.tf's calculations are now close to 30% off the actual value.  and as i mentioned some time ago, no one trades down to refined and then sells refined for cash.  not to mention, lets say your bp is worth $200.  good luck finding a refined buyer that would be willing to buy that much refined.

 

why does this matter?  if you wanted to sell your entire backpack for cash the typical backpack buyer will say "i'll give you 65% of the value bp.tf shows".  this used to be pretty fair - i mean, one transaction instead of having to trade everything piecemeal is certainly worth 35%.  however, if the bp.tf value is 30% off already, applying a further 35% discount means you're actually only getting 45% of the real value of your backpack.  instead of $130 for your $200 bp, you're getting ~$90.  ouch.

 

edit: i think i've got an error in my calculator...

[polar]

 the bp.tf value is 30% off already

 

Hmm. My calculation is a quite a bit different. Metal at 0.12 puts keys at 1.94. Keys are selling at ~1.75. So that would only be 11% off.

[buddhapest]

Hmm. My calculation is a quite a bit different. Metal at 0.12 puts keys at 1.94. Keys are selling at ~1.75. So that would only be 11% off.

in fact, using those numbers it's 11% inflated...

 

 

ok, my bad. so where my 30% came from was by evaluating my bp using SCM pricing for items that can be sold there, and the in keys value of items that don't, applying the valve tax and then assuming buying keys on SCM to sell for paypal.

 

i think those calculations have a massive error somewhere.

[Free money accepted here]

We should just have values for keys in $USD as well as ref.

[Deku]

With the recent drop of refined metal, my backpack value went down almost a bud ($23.54)

[buddhapest]

We should just have values for keys in $USD as well as ref.

 

yes exactly.  that would be the most accurate because the number of key to cash trades completely overshadows the number of refined to cash trades.  however, as i mention in the original post, the bp.tf database isn't built that way.

 

With the recent drop of refined metal, my backpack value went down almost a bud ($23.54)

 

Mattie!'s dropped $7000 as a result (seriously).  that relative value is not the problem, since it's quite probably overinflated and needs adjustments from time to time.  the real issue is that it's clearly innacurate and subject to wild swings at the mercy of a very niche market (10-30 trades) that is refined for cash trading

[Deku]

yes exactly.  that would be the most accurate because the number of key to cash trades completely overshadows the number of refined to cash trades.  however, as i mention in the original post, the bp.tf database isn't built that way.

 

 

Mattie!'s dropped $7000 as a result (seriously).  that relative value is not the problem, since it's quite probably overinflated and needs adjustments from time to time.  the real issue is that it's clearly innacurate and subject to wild swings at the mercy of a very niche market (10-30 trades) that is refined for cash trading

It's kinda frustrating because previously my backpack was ~7 buds and now it's 6.1 :s

[buddhapest]

here's another thought.  what if people stopped trading refined for cash completely?  would that suddently make the value of every item in tf2 ZERO? (that's rhethorical, clearly it would not, yet the way the bp.tf database works, it would)

[PotVsKtl]

1. Backpack full of keys

2. Buds become 1 key cheaper

3. Value of backpack goes down 12 "buds"

 

Genius system y'all have worked out here.

[buddhapest]

1. Backpack full of keys

2. Buds become 1 key cheaper

3. Value of backpack goes down 12 "buds"

 

Genius system y'all have worked out here.

and changing your preferences doesn't help.  you're stuck with all the wacky bp.tf conversions

 

which actually makes getting off "The Bud Standard" really difficult.

 

it really shows how much effect this site has on trading no matter how much people beat their chest "we just report, we just report" for years and years