F CHARLIE Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 I was looking at the Smoking Cosa I noticed that last summer - fall six more of that hat were unboxed. These most likely came from people unlocking crate 42 and many may not have known the relationship between crates and effects just that 42 returns well. Now that it doesn't it is unlikely that we will see any real increase in gen 2 effects (thank goodness, there are almost 50 in many of them). As this can only be good for the effects it makes me think that Valve needs to introduce a new group of effects and slow the volume of gen 3 into the market. Gen 1 is doing better than when it was released and I feel gen 2 had hype then crashed and has reached the bottom especially when gen 3 came. Gen 3 will continue to drop until it no longer getting unboxed on mass. (Btw if they do discontinue gen 3 this summer they would be the rarest of the three generations). The point of this is to say that part of the gen 2 crash had as much to do with that it was still being unboxed at a very high rate while there was new effects that were competing with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puddingkip Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Gen 1 is rare not because of low # but because of many people who traded/played in the days of gen 1 don't trade/play anymore and they're not on the market. Gen 3 is new and thus still on the market as most people still play/trade. So whilst the technical rarity may be lower for gen 3 effects, their rarity on the market isn't. And of course price = demand/supply. When supply increases, and demand decreases (more effects/hats to chose from) the price will crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted April 24, 2014 Author Share Posted April 24, 2014 Gen 1 is rare not because of low # but because of many people who traded/played in the days of gen 1 don't trade/play anymore and they're not on the market. Gen 3 is new and thus still on the market as most people still play/trade. So whilst the technical rarity may be lower for gen 3 effects, their rarity on the market isn't. And of course price = demand/supply. When supply increases, and demand decreases (more effects/hats to chose from) the price will crash This is well known too although as more of these players come out of hibernation and we get into the summer event more of the earlier effects will hit the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Radiated Banana Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 I was looking at the Smoking Cosa I noticed that last summer - fall six more of that hat were unboxed. These most likely came from people unlocking crate 42 and many may not have known the relationship between crates and effects just that 42 returns well. Now that it doesn't it is unlikely that we will see any real increase in gen 2 effects (thank goodness, there are almost 50 in many of them). As this can only be good for the effects it makes me think that Valve needs to introduce a new group of effects and slow the volume of gen 3 into the market. Gen 1 is doing better than when it was released and I feel gen 2 had hype then crashed and has reached the bottom especially when gen 3 came. Gen 3 will continue to drop until it no longer getting unboxed on mass. (Btw if they do discontinue gen 3 this summer they would be the rarest of the three generations). The point of this is to say that part of the gen 2 crash had as much to do with that it was still being unboxed at a very high rate while there was new effects that were competing with it. then gen 4 would be really common and it will crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pwndaz! Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Concerning new effects... all I care about is that they add Eerie Nuts & Bolts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whopz Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 why on earth would they add that though? regarding 4th gen crash, every single update/release starts off with a boom and crashes. i don't know why that's a surprise to anyone. it wouldn't even make 3rd gens more valuable, they will continually go down, probably for at least 18 months to 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 why on earth would they add that though? regarding 4th gen crash, every single update/release starts off with a boom and crashes. i don't know why that's a surprise to anyone. it wouldn't even make 3rd gens more valuable, they will continually go down, probably for at least 18 months to 2 years well, if bptf was smart, 'they' wouldn't price 4th gen effects until like a year later actually allowing them to stabilize normally before fucking things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfy Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 3rd Gen isn't bad, it's just the stigma of "hard to profit" is attached to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted April 24, 2014 Author Share Posted April 24, 2014 Concerning new effects... all I care about is that they add Eerie Nuts & Bolts. Darkblaze champ well, if bptf was smart, 'theand ndy' wouldn't price 4th gen effects until like a year later actually allowing them to stabilize normally before fucking things up. Wrong approach. The 2 transaction rule is very sound when effects are new ( no effect is new anymore). There has to be greater effort placed on getting them priced as they come out thus giving buyers a better idea of how they should judge a hat. In part I hope they do release new effects this summer so traders will remember to not overinvest. 3rd Gen isn't bad, it's just the stigma of "hard to profit" is attached to them. I have already profited from DP on a couple occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Wrong approach. The 2 transaction rule is very sound when effects are new ( no effect is new anymore). There has to be greater effort placed on getting them priced as they come out thus giving buyers a better idea of how they should judge a hat. In part I hope they do release new effects this summer so traders will remember to not overinvest. Except bptf causes a problem when effects are still settling and I'm convinced is the reason why third gens are still artificially high. (assume every sale occurs twice and ignoring overpays) Hat A sells for 5 buds the day the effect comes out. It gets priced at 5. Hat B buys hat A. Hat B is now priced at 5 buds. Hat C sells for hat B, Hat D for hat C and so on....Now, one year later, Hat Z sells for Hat Y. Now at this point, hats A-Y have all been priced off of that single 5 bud sale months ago and now hat Z gets priced at 5. The issue is that new effects are higher when they first come out and will invariably drop quite a lot as hype dies off. However, because hats can be priced off of other hats any one sale affects the price of any other hat thats ever sold for that hat. The issue with the third gens never happened with the 2nd gens, partly because they were allowed to just drop naturally with people updating prices and competing with each other as thats how prices were set. Now, people look at bptf, see the listed price, and then don't really compete over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted April 24, 2014 Author Share Posted April 24, 2014 Except bptf causes a problem when effects are still settling and I'm convinced is the reason why third gens are still artificially high. (assume every sale occurs twice and ignoring overpays) Hat A sells for 5 buds the day the effect comes out. It gets priced at 5. Hat B buys hat A. Hat B is now priced at 5 buds. Hat C sells for hat B, Hat D for hat C and so on....Now, one year later, Hat Z sells for Hat Y. Now at this point, hats A-Y have all been priced off of that single 5 bud sale months ago and now hat Z gets priced at 5. The issue is that new effects are higher when they first come out and will invariably drop quite a lot as hype dies off. However, because hats can be priced off of other hats any one sale affects the price of any other hat thats ever sold for that hat. The issue with the third gens never happened with the 2nd gens, partly because they were allowed to just drop naturally with people updating prices and competing with each other as thats how prices were set. Now, people look at bptf, see the listed price, and then don't really compete over it. There are ways to avoid one new effect pricing another. Remember, it was like that before as well when effects were first discovered. What you are saying does not hold true for some hats. I have seen several new effect hats get 4 accepted prices on it and none were hype price. It seems hype surrounds some but not all. Worth researching I think. 2nd gen also started off very high and are now all low tier with several occupying the bottom. 2nd gen has been around longer as well but took a very long time to come down by comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Except 2nd gens slowly came down vs third gens which jump down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted April 24, 2014 Author Share Posted April 24, 2014 Except 2nd gens slowly came down vs third gens which jump down. That's what I said and the reason for 3rd gen coming down faster is bp.tf. Btw, tangent/ whats up with peace phantom. Year out of date. Five or so sellers on out post. This is one of the most popular items in the game and a first gen effect. Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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